Joshua Landis on Syria - Assad will NOT fall (at least to 2013)

Middle East analyst and Syrian guru, Josh Landis, has a new article out in the Spring issue of Middle East Policy. Here is the link for it.

On Josh's blog, he bullet points the four mains reasons to support is conclusion: Why Syrian president Assad will make it to 2013.

1. Asad remains strong militarily.
Unlike Mubarak in Egypt, who left the military in the hands of non-family members, the Asads have taken extreme “sectarian safety measures,” staffing the security forces and broader government with loyal Alawis. Some estimates suggest that as many as 80% of Syria’s officer corps are Alawi.

2. The opposition is weak.
Reports that the political Syrian National Council has gained control over the Free Syrian Army are by most accounts fictional. Whether peaceful or armed, the opposition cells in Syria work independently.

3. The international community is unlikely to intervene.
Syria remains in the realm of “too big to fail,” and foreign powers are unlikely to intervene if Syrians cannot unite and build a military force capable of providing, at the very least, a credible promise of stabilizing Syria on its own.

4. The economy is problematic.
Asad’s cousin Rami Makhlouf is “Mr. Ten Percent” of the Syrian economy, having assumed a majority stake in many major enterprises and holding companies, assuring that the Asad family maintained control over the economy.

Dr. Landis is associate professor and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Iran this week

If you're looking at the news and wondering what's going on with Iran, well . . . you're not alone.

People across the world this week will notice a rise in fuel prices. Even in places like Sri Lanka.

European crude is around $120 and rising, while NYMEX has crossed the $100 threshold. Even though Saudi Arabia has promised to "off set" any supply cut from global demand, Iran's choice to unilaterally cut off oil to some European countries (over their threat of sanctions) has internationally shot up prices. Though many in France and Britain will tell you it was less than 1% of their supply anyway.

To further understand what is going on, I recommend checking out this program by Al Jazeera, then this one on NPR, and finally this one by CNN.

They all do a good job with the facts and showing all the little antagonistic steps each country takes to try and one up one another. Eventually, so everyone thinks, someone will have had enough, and either a war will break out, or there will be some kind of deal that lifts sanctions for flying in uranium and installing inspectors at Iran's nuclear plants. That is what a deal would look like, no?

In the meantime, let's watch how much oil spikes this week. Just to see how much of an effect Iran's strategy to unilaterally stop shipments to Europe has on their fragile economy and global markets. If it really works, for the Iranians that is, they could push Europe and the US into a double dip rescission and make them feel the pain they feel on the streets of "high inflation Tehran."

The game continues.