Regional War

Interesting piece a few days ago in the New York Times. The summery is that most simulations of an Israeli strike on Iran would lead to a regional war. Sounds nice, no?

A classified war simulation held this month to assess the repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to American officials.

So yes, by "regional" they mean that the US could get involved. In fact, David Axe, of the epically cool blog, War is Boring, suggests that it'll be the smaller US navy that will do most of the fighting.

Small ships have never really been the Navy’s thing. Tasked with deploying all over the world, far from its U.S. shipyards, the Navy prefers big vessels capable of carrying lots of fuel and supplies and taking a beating on long ocean crossings. The average size of an American destroyer has more than doubled since the early 1990s, now tipping the scales at 9,000 tons displacement.

But small ships have an edge in certain situations. For one, they can safely sail in shallow waters and get closer to an enemy’s coastline.

So, stand by. Hopefully all this posturing means that everyone is just leveraging for a better diplomatic solution. Otherwise . . . get ready for a mess.