Joshua Landis on Syria - Assad will NOT fall (at least to 2013)

Middle East analyst and Syrian guru, Josh Landis, has a new article out in the Spring issue of Middle East Policy. Here is the link for it.

On Josh's blog, he bullet points the four mains reasons to support is conclusion: Why Syrian president Assad will make it to 2013.

1. Asad remains strong militarily.
Unlike Mubarak in Egypt, who left the military in the hands of non-family members, the Asads have taken extreme “sectarian safety measures,” staffing the security forces and broader government with loyal Alawis. Some estimates suggest that as many as 80% of Syria’s officer corps are Alawi.

2. The opposition is weak.
Reports that the political Syrian National Council has gained control over the Free Syrian Army are by most accounts fictional. Whether peaceful or armed, the opposition cells in Syria work independently.

3. The international community is unlikely to intervene.
Syria remains in the realm of “too big to fail,” and foreign powers are unlikely to intervene if Syrians cannot unite and build a military force capable of providing, at the very least, a credible promise of stabilizing Syria on its own.

4. The economy is problematic.
Asad’s cousin Rami Makhlouf is “Mr. Ten Percent” of the Syrian economy, having assumed a majority stake in many major enterprises and holding companies, assuring that the Asad family maintained control over the economy.

Dr. Landis is associate professor and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.