Could it be true? Netanyahu ready to endorse two state solution?

Well, well, well. Looks like Obama and Biden may have worked some magic in the Middle East. But wait, is this just another example of lip service which will soon give way to resumed tension and imminent conflicts?

Perhaps, but the AP has reported that on the eve of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's crucial visit to Washington, his defense minister suggested Saturday the Israeli leader might be ready to endorse a Palestinian state when he meets President Barack Obama.

"I think and believe that Netanyahu will tell Obama this government is prepared to go for a political process that will result in two peoples living side by side in peace and mutual respect," Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Channel 2 TV on Saturday.

Now, enter Iran.

Netanyahu stated he is prepared to take military action against Iran to stop it from developing nuclear weapons. Vice President Joe Biden responded saying such an action would be "ill-advised." A fact that I, The Rooster, agree with.

Israeli and foreign media reported this week that CIA Director Leon Panetta secretly visited Israel earlier this month and asked for advance warning of any military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Ah, good old shuttle diplomacy.

If the Israeli leader does endorse a Palestinian state, he will almost certainly want something in return from Obama — a tougher line on reining in Iran.

But I must emplore Netanyahu not to take military action against Iran. I have come to this conclusion after my last visit to Israel where I met and fell in love with some Israeli soldiers partying in Jerusalem: Take a look below.
Many of you may already know that the Israel Defense Forces differs from most armed forces in the world in many ways, including the conscription of women, and the structure, with close relations between the ground forces, air force and navy. They are required to carry their firearms at all times while in the IDF, even when out for a few drinks in the holy city. Knowing that if Netanyahu decides to attack Iran, he may inadvertantly be sending these armed beauties above to war, and there is a chance that these hotties may be injured or killed, is too much for The Rooster.

So, I say NO to a strike on Iran, if not for a chance at peace, then for the pool of hotties in the world. May it not shrink by three.

Boots On the Ground: "Ok guys, does everyone have their gun for the Lebanese Election?"

Casbahites, lay off that fermented Casbah camels milk for a sec!  Geezz.... We gotta get back to the June 7, Lebanese election. So on the subject, I like what Abu Muqawama said the other day about securing this tiny country on the banks of the eastern Med:

“This year’s round of elections is going to present a serious security challenge for the Lebanese Armed Forces. In years past, when different regions voted on consecutive weekends, the army could more or less shift its resources from week to week in order to secure the country region by region. This year, that’s impossible. If you look at the Lebanese population, approximately 3.7 million people, and the numbers in the army and internal security services, you’re left with a troops-to-population ratio that doesn’t bode well for security the day of the election.”

True, but if you crunch the numbers: Lebanese Armed Forces + International Peace Keepers who are mostly guarding the Blue Line border with Israel = About the number needed to fill the security void. In the end, I think this election will be regarded as "free and fair," mostly because Hezbollah/ The Aounist, who head the March 8 coalition, think they can pull a victory. Still, the thing to look for in the next month will be the coordination of security forces. Be sure to look for a heavy build up in the hastily contested district of Metn. And just for a cheep laugh:

A tacky picture of a man in the Lebanese Armed Forces & some random derelict. This photo was taken in the fall of 2007 in downtown Beirut.

P.S. -- My favorite grown up, Michael J. Totten, has written "Brace for a Hezbollah victory." So, sobering statement, or simply suckin' on some of that Bekaa cannabis old Qifa Nabki solomly swears by?

The Netanyahu filibuster

I found this to be profoundly amusing....  Think old Bibi has the chutzpa to lecture Obama? Na......

WASHINGTON — The last time Benjamin Netanyahu met an American president as Israel’s new leader, in 1996, it did not go well.Mr. Netanyahu lectured President Bill Clinton about Arab-Israeli relations, aides recalled, driving Mr. Clinton into a profane outburst after his guest left.

Mr. Netanyahu is likely to avoid a repeat of that when he meets President Obama at the White House on Monday. But the relationship between Israel and the United States hasbecome more unsettled since Mr. Obama took office.

Iran expert Mohammad Jabbari's take on the Roxanna Saberi release

A good friend of The Casbah, Mohammad Jabbari, has been watching the Roxanna Saberi situation in Iran for all us sinners... He is close to various news agencies and well respected. This is what he had to say in my email inbox this morning:

Iran/U.S. relations: going to be back to its normal state prior to
Iran’s hostage crisis; or is this just another round of bogus talks
and gestures of diplomatic efforts?

There are good reasons to assume that both countries are working to
build diplomatic foundations for normalizing their relations. Why?
First, if the report below is true then I can assure you that there is
a major disagreement within Iran’s political system over how the
political tensions between the United States and Iran should
soften.

Second, the current head of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Ali Larijani,
who also happens to be the former nuclear negotiator for Iran, has
been in opposition with President Ahmadinejad’s government for months
now. The continuous disputes over Ahmadinejad’s budget proposal is an
evident light to this assumption.

Third, Iran’s top former nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, resigned of
his post in a surprise notice which suggests that there already
existed disagreements over how Iran’s nuclear issue should be dealt
with.

Conclusion, Mr. Larijani is apparently hosting a top advisor to the
White House, Mr. Vali Reza Nasr, Author of Shia Revival, and Democracy
in Iran. This may as well be the beginning of the normalization of
relations between the two countries.

A rare report from a recognized Iranian news website "Tabnak" confirms
that Vali Reza Nasr, a senior advisor to the White House, has made a
visit to Tehran. According to this report, Mr. Ali Larijani, current
head of the Iranian parliament, and Mr. Hadad Adel, the former head of
Iran's parliament, had made the preparations for this Visit. The
report continues by asserting that the Iranian President, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, had no knowledge of Mr. Nasr's presence in Iran. It has
also been said that Mr. Larijani had already obtained necessary
permission from the office of the supreme leadership to host Mr. Nasr.

The report was published by Tabnak News Agency earlier today (Tehran's
time) and has not yet been confirmed by any other sources.

Hmmm... A lot to chew on, eh? I think so. And I'm always impressed by the savvy politics that Iranian politicians love to play. I think I would have to agree with most international diplomats who have said, "The Iranians are always the best organized, most prepared and most profoundly styled at the bargaining table."

Thanks Mohammad, cool take!

Gettin' jiggy with my Iraqi Parliamentarian

Taken' it easy last night, I decided to watch one of those online al-Jazeera features. They're really good if you haven't seen 'em. Anyway, in a moment of hilarity, gazing at my computer screen, I noticed that this member of the Iraqi "Sons of Iraq" program was dressed like a West LA gangsta!!! Ha, yeah, well, the documentary was good too.

Hezbollah: Defenders of Lebanon or regional arms dealer?

Ok guys, any of you read the Financial Times? It's slowly becoming my favorite online read. Just this week, they posted an interview with Hezbollah's #2, Naim Qassem. Though he actually didn't say much (or much that I regard as news) I was more surprised by the context that we are all starting use when talking about this "Lebanese group."

First off, the day's of the Hezbollah 1985 letter stating "we are only about resistance and will never point our arms at fellow Lebanese" are over. Remember what happened last May? The pro-Cedar government in Beirut, later deemed March 14, decided to crack down on the Hezbollah telecommunications company. Then, without warning, Hezbollah guerrillas took over West Beirut! Click here to read what I had to say about. (And thank you Santa Barbara Independent for publishing my rant.)

It's now clear that Hezzy has broken this element of trust among the Lebanese; what about the rest of the Middle East? Remember Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army? Yup, members of the Mahdi Army trained in the Lebanese Beeka valley. AND, now with this whole scandal in Egypt a month ago, the Arabian Sheikh's are starting to talk...

So what's the deal? Either Hezbollah is about defending the Shia Lebanese and fighting Israel IN LEBANON, or they are about getting into the business of regional arms trafficking and training. If the latter, this would technically brand Hezbollah as a "regional group" and thus, more justifiable for Israel--and perhaps established Arab states like Egypt--to "return the favor" via force.

(This is a picture of a blown bridge in northern Lebanon right after the 2006 War. But wait, isn't Hezbollah mostly in the south? "Oh my child, let me tell you about a little something called 'collective punishment' vis-a-vis the civilian population..." Get the point?)

In conclusion, it is this Guerrilla's opinion that Hezbollah better shape up. Egyptian Lieutenant General Omar Suleiman who is head of he national intelligence agency, is not about to let a bunch of towel-head, bearded, upstart Shia clerics get a hold in his established Egyptian state. No way Jose. Even if Hezbollah says "but it's for the resistance and smuggling arms to the downtrodden people of Gaza"-- please, it will likely backfire and cause other established Arab states (Jordan) to become increasingly wise. So tell your boys to take it easy Hassan Nasrallah! (Hmm... Think he follows this blog?)


And now for something completely different: Did anyone read the Haaretz article: "Iran's missiles are not an existential threat"? Keep in mind, those Persian Shahab's are really just SCUD's with new paint. --Hasta.

Why the U.S. will lose in Afghanistan, by Col. Kurtz

Yesterday, I decided to get freaked and watch my favorite war movie Apocalypse Now. I simply can't give a summery to do the flick justice, so if you haven't seen it, consider it your duty as a devout member of The Casbah readership. So sitting in my chair, watching Col. Kurtz give his famous speech, a connection came racing through my mind like an email through the matrix of the internet. First, however, you should read (or watch) Kurtz'z monologue:

"It's impossible to find the words to describe what is necessary to those who do no know what "horror" means. Horror. Horror has a face and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends; if they are not, then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies."

"I remember when I was with Special Forces, seems a thousand centuries ago, we went into a camp to inoculate some children. We left the camp after we had inoculated the children for polio. Then this old man came running after us, he couldn't see. We went back there, and they had come and hacked off every inoculated arm. There they were in a pile. A pile of little arms. And I remember, I, I, I cried, I wept like some grandmother. I wanted to tear my teeth out. I didn't know what I wanted to do. And I want to remember it. I never want to forget it. I never want to forget. Then I realized like I was shot, like I was shot with a diamond. A diamond bullet right though my forehead. Then I thought the genius of it, the genius, that they had the will to do that. Perfect, genuine, crystallin, pure."

"Then I realized they were stronger than we. Because they could stand that they were not monsters, they were trained condraies. They fought with their heats and had families whom they loved. Yet, they had the strength to do that. If I had ten divisions of those men then our troubles here would be over very quickly. You have to have men who are moral and at the same time are able to utilize their primordial instinct to kill without feeling, without passion without judgment, without judgment. Because it is judgment that defeats us." -- Col. Kurtz, Apocalypse Now (1979).

Phew, pause. The following is an unknown Taliban spokesman addressing the Swat Vally via radio broadcast. Remember, the Swat Vally is just outside of the federally administered tribal areas (FATA) in Pakistan. This means that the Taliban are expanding and are ever closer Islamabad. Read into the dedication of this man rhetoric:

Sharia law is our right, and we will exercise this right, whatever happens.
I swear to g*d we will shed our own blood to achieve this.
We will make our sons suicide bombers!
We will make ourselves suicide bombers!
I swear to God if our leader orders me, I will sacrifice myself.
And blow myslef up in the middle of our enemies.

So what am I trying to hint at? Well, I don't think the Qaeda, the Taliban, or any other Salafi Islamist group could take Pakistan. Even if their weak civilian government crumbles, the military is in charge. Thus, the nukes are safe.

But read into Col Kurtz's war philosophy a little. I think that the Af-Pak situation resembles Vietnam on a number of fronts. If you ask me, we need to start to understand:

1. The devotion of our newer Islamist enemies.
2. That alienating the nonviolent Islamic scholars of the world only helps for them to justify "defensive jihad" for Muslims in a place like Afghanistan. (Like what happened to the Soviets.)
3. Like Kurtz said, " A pile of little arms." Like the Veitcong, the Islamists in this region are willing to take this to a whole new level. Let us just pause for a moment and appreciate the horror of this...

Eastern Christians & The Pope... (Aka, "whose the white guy?)

Christianity. Not exactly a monolithic religion, eh? In talking about The Pope's visit to Jordan, the West Bank and Israel with a friend last week, my friend was eager to chime in: "Just remember, Middle Eastern Christians (Maronites, Chaldeans, Assyrians, Armenians etc.) do not take orders from The Pope. They recognize his authority as a leaders, but they mostly see him as a European after thought to their religion."

Though my friend may seem to a bit skeptical, this statement generally reflects my experience with Middle Eastern Christians. And it seems that this BBC article agrees"

We feel like he's just a tourist. He has done nothing to help the Christians

Rimon Himo
Christian, Jerusalem Old City

Freedom of Speech and COIN-time in Afghanistan (no relation)

1. Many of you know that I write a weekly piece for The Vista, a publication of the University of San Diego. Not only is "Manifesto" my last column of the year, it has nothing to do with the Middle East! Can you belive it?!? Still, I trust you'll enjoy.

2. How do we fix Afghanistan? Put a JSOC guy in charge!!! That's right, Gen. McKiernan has been canned! Word on the streets is that Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal will take over. Remember this guy? He was the man in charge when U.S. Special Forces took out al-Qaeda in Iraq leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. More importantly, however, I think this change in leadership illustrates an early sign of the new U.S. strategy in Afghanistan: COIN. We can't kill our way out of this war boys, Afghanistan is MUCH more complicated than that. So, looks like we are going to put another West Point grad in charge of figuring this out! Inshallah.

PS-- Now that I think about it, those grown-ups over at Uskowi said it the best:

The unexpected change of command clearly signifies the nature of the unconventional war being waged in Afghanistan. The Taliban forces have gained strength recently, and the Pentagon must have wanted an unconventional warfare tactician as commander to check Taliban’s advances.

How to win a war, by Colonel Kurtz

"It's impossible to find the words to describe what is necessary to those who do no know what "horror" means. Horror. Horror has a face and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends; if they are not, then they are enemies to feared. They are truly enemies." -- Col. Kurtz, Apocalypse Now (1979).

Islands in Palestine: Can the water still be drained?

Just in case you aren't clear of the meaning of the term archipelago, it refers to the islands off the coast of Italy, formed as a tectonic chain. I only bring it up because A) I had no idea what the term meant and B) my favorite Lebanese blogger, Qifa Nabk, wrote one hell of a blogpost on how these islands look strikingly similar to the sovereign Palestinian land on the West Bank. I believe the metaphor of a jail also works: though the guard’s only control a small percentage of the physical space, it is in this space that they are able to maintain control over all the prisoners. Capisce?

So yeah, this map does not look encouraging; it is the perfect example of why the Israeli policy of "natural growth" is detrimental peace. And while I'm not going to get into the past, I would like to say that President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu are going to have one hell of a meeting this week when they discuss the future of Middle Eastern real estate.

I like how the Independent quoted King Abdullah of Jordan yesterday in saying "this will be the acid test for the Administration’s commitment to peace in the Middle East." Though I think the King is right--this meeting will make or break Obama's efforts for a two-state solution--I also want to point out that this "archipelago" of territory on the West Bank is shrinking by the day.

So it's the bottom of the 9th and a solution is down by a few runs. My only question is: who’s up to bat?