Oh come on honey lets visit Iraq, they're nationalist now, not Islamists

Um, yeah. Not the case. All those Iraq perverts on the web may be subscribing to this nationalist rhetoric after last month’s regional elections, but as the FT suggests, this is not the case. In fact, what we saw was that the Shia parties that are undeniably Islamic (Da'wa and the Sadderists) took control. The true nationalists (the guys that if I spat a name we all would be like "huh???") are either in another country of scared to organize.

What we saw in last month’s election was that Iraqi's voted for federalism--that is, one state that is governed from Baghdad. The SIIC, or whatever the hell they call themselves now, who advocated a Shia mini-state in the south, were defeated. Break Iraq in to three? Forget about it.

Nevertheless, the Islamic federalist won. PM Maliki of Da'wa and the Sadderists have formed a coalition and have agreed to limmit Iranian power, while sparing the world from further memorizing fictitious names for Mess-o-potania.

Don't let those intellectual drunks who never leave the office fool you. Even though Maliki dose not wear a turban, he is still in charge, still one of those Islamic politicals’.

My question is, however: now that the Iraqi Shia have broken free from the yoke of Baathist Saddam (Yazid), will they return to their Arabness? AKA--Will they ever ally with their Arabian kinsman and resist those Persian cats? Arabs V.S. Persians, or Sunni V.S. Shia? Perhaps in five years these so-called barriers will be become as irrelevant as they currently seem important.

Um, (in Farsi) excuse me sir, do you know how to get to Martyr Imad Mugniyah Street?

Oh, how the kids remember Hezbollah's slain leader. It seemed like only yesterday that this recluse, hat wearing, victim of face-altering plastic surgery was assassinated. But by whom? Well, the Syrians, Hezbollah, Iran and everyone else drinking the Kool-Aid claims it was a clandestine Israeli Mossad unit that carried it out. While others, claim that it was someone deep inside Syrian President Assad’s security service. Nevertheless, the point is that Imad Mugniyah is dead and Hezbollah is struggling to replace this seasoned comrade of the resistance.

I wrote a post a little while ago saying that Iran is trying to fill the Mugniyah's void in Hezbollah's leadership. Remember, Mugniyah was considered a tactical genius. And while he was no Jo Stalin, this dude sure had a personality cult going for him.

So, as one might expect, Iran is renaming a congested street in upper-middle class Teheran after Hezbollah's fallen man. To me, Martyr Imad Mugniyah Street represents Tehran’s salute to resistance, while at the same time trying to replace Mugniyah with a less independent guerrilla.

But it’s not like I hang out with these guys enough to really know.

Jigsaw Jihadism

Yesterday I was perusing the Internet, as I often do before retiring for the night, when I stumbled upon an article I read two years ago but had simply filed away in the back of my mind in the area for "articles I might blog about one day". I recalled reading the article due in part to it's catchy title, "Jigsaw Jihadism" which I found intriguing. Although I was not entirely sure if I could recall the conclusions of the text, I knew it was something I raised an eyebrow for.

So I decided to re-read the short publication again and was pleasantly surprised by its content. It was written by Justine A. Rosenthal for and published by The National Interest in Feb. of 2007 and it was well researched and in good form. I'm not sure if it got much play in the forums, but it should. Take a read, I'm sure you will learn something, and be pleasantly surprised as I was.

Click Here for the Full text.

Also check out the National Interest Website when you get a chance and tell me what you think. I know Nixon would be proud.

Taliban gets ready for Obama's 17,000, can the U.S. shut down their back yard?

It's always hard to fight a war when your enemy wants to fight it from a different country. This is more or less what the Taliban is doing: Fighting from the Pakistani Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) while launching attacks against coalition forces in Afghanistan.

Philip Reeves, an NPR guru on South Asia, had something interesting to say:

"The Taliban is reorganizing in Pakistan's tribal belt in preparation for the arrival of 17,000 U.S. troops across the border in Afghanistan. It doesn't want to fight on two fronts so it is no longer interested in waging war with the Pakistani army."

When the U.S. can shut down the Taliban's back yard in FATA is when they can start to make serous progress. Until then, it won't matter how much you try to protect the civilian population, the attacks will keep coming.

Christopher Hitchens: the truth behind his Beirut ass-kicking

I have read a plethora of accounts from last weeks Beiruti ass-kicking. Yes, by this time we all know: Christopher Hitchens got roughed up by the Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party--aka, a pro Assad band of idealistic thugs who have something like a swastika on their flag. Anyway, I could go on; and on, and on--but I think that you should read Michael J. Totten's personal account of the brutalizing.

Plus, he runs a cool blog too.

Nucler Tehran? Big freakin' deal

It was a move that sure got the West thinking: Today Iran carried out its first nuclear test at one if its highly controversial power plants. But, as the Iranians often remind, this peaceful nuclear program started under the Shah. So if the world could trust the Iranians then, why not now? Can you see why this is a dubious question?

Nevertheless, it has led some Middle East scholars to say something like, "well, if Iran gets a nuke, they can never use it. And if they do, they will suffer the combined arsenal of the Europeans, the Americans and most certainly the Israelis." So even if Iran got the bomb, it would be little more than a nationalistic ploy of modernity.

This is why Iran has been so adamant about strengthening its regional proxies. By no means am I saying that groups like Hezbollah "takes orders" from Tehran, but they are certainly influential in that they give them money and technical/tactical support. In fact, ever since the assassination of Hezbollah strategic guru, Imad Mughniyeh, Iran has stepped up to try and fill the "strategic void" in the Hezbollah leadership.

Point being: if in a few years Iran gets the bomb, it isn't going to mean a whole lot. They are not likely to give it to a proxy, because everyone in the world will know the return address. And there first-rate terrorist apparatus--from the Palestinian Territories to the streets of Herat, Afghanistan--is going to continue to be its main source of deterrence.

So calm down everyone, if the world can live with a nuclear Pakistan, then it surely can live with a nuclear Iran—try telling this to the Israelis...

Oh don't worry Shlomo, we have a man inside

Spying. It is one of the most racy things in the Middle East. "Are you working for Mossad?" Yeah, Arabs get it all the time. In fact, when I was on the West Bank a few summers ago it was one of the few crimes that I can remember that the Palestinians would actually kill a kinsman for. Nevertheless, collaborates still exist. There are two fronts that I want to talk about.

1. During the Israeli campaign in Gaza I made a prediction that when the dust settles on the Gaza Strip, we would see a flurry of articles saying that Fatah helped the Israelis with Intel on Hamas. Remember the assassination of Hamas leader, Sheikh Ahmad Yassin? Yeah, Fatah people helped the Israeli Air Force with this one. (And by the way, I am currently reading "Hamas," by Azzam Tamimi and it has a really detailed description of Sheikh Yassin in the early years of Hamas. A must read.)

2. Ok. Now, the real news. MOSSAD HAS INFILTRATED HEZBOLLAH!!! Can I say this with any more chutzpa? Israeli intelligence has--or at least had--a man inside Hezbollah. And let me condition the term "inside." The guy was a southerner, a Shia who sold them cars! He was not a Christian or a Sunni; rather, he was, as Hezbollah would say, one of us. This is the first time that Israel has been able to infiltrate their northern nemesis, not to mention bug virtually every car in the Hezbollah fleet. This story is still hot off the press. And as the days progress, I think we are going to get a better picture of the damage that this has caused. At the very least, Israel has been able to track Hezbollah cars--and where they drive--for the past few years.

So it looks like even the notoriously disciplined guerrillas of Shia Lebanon can be infiltrated... I suppose the next question is: can it be done again? Or even, could Hezbollah have a guy in Mossad?
I'm just the guerrilla who asks...

Cyber-Warfare: The Emerging Threat and the need for an International Legal Framework

This latest post is for Franco. He seems to think I do not subscribe to the idea that Cyber-warfare is a real threat. For some unknown reason, his comments have been aimed at attempting to enlighten the world to the cyber realm of warfare, the future of modern combat. Not that I do not ascribe to the idea that cyber-warfare is a growing threat, I do, but I do not think it is the entire new "front" of warfare, or that we can do anything about it other than create an International legal framework. But that still does nothing to stop terrorists or radical groups that operate outside the realm of conventional warfare tactics. Anyway, back to the fact that I have been aware of, and well versed in the cyber-life, cyber-warfare threat for some time now. It's old news if you ask me. I wrote this in 2007.

Click Here for the Goods Franco.

Also Franco, If you scroll down, you will see a post titled, "The Secret War". Good post also written by myself a long time ago, a precursor to the Global Earth fiasco now at hand. As fun as the google earth articles are, it's old news and quite frankly, just fluff to the bigger problem.

The Eye in the Sky: A little more on Google Earth

Maybe it’s just my own sick humor, but I always have a good guffaw when I see a picture of a bearded Taliban militant punchin’ away on a brand-new iPhone. Isn’t it a paradox? On one hand these dudes are advocating a romantic return to the Islamic sixth century; on the other, they are just as enamored as Paris Hilton by the glitter of Western technology.

Kicks aside, it’s important that we remember that these warriors-turned-techno-nerds are really not just around for our amusement. In fact, these same Taliban militants have waged such an insurgency that President Obama has recently approved sending 17,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. Say what you want about the efficacy of guerrilla warfare, it’s been seven years since the U.S. invaded the place, and it’s still a war zone.

So let me offer a point of advice to the powers-that-be that might improve our chances of success in this mountainous region of Central Asia: Stop Google Earth from broadcasting crystal-clear pictures of the place!

Simply put, the real problem with Google Earth is that it allows every Tom, Dick and Hussein to inspect U.S. military bases from anywhere with an Internet connection. And while Google’s satellite may only update its pictures of a place like Afghanistan or Pakistan every few months, that is still often enough to mount attacks or cause a diplomatic fiasco.

The most recent drama came last week when U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) made an epic gaff by revealing that American unmanned drones are actually being launched from a U.S. airbase inside Pakistan, not Afghanistan. It was only a matter of hours until some random browser (perhaps some al-Queda on his iPhone) found pictures of our shiny drones parked on the runway of an American base inside Pakistan. Oops.

And just to make sure the cake was fully iced, The Pakistan Tribune, the day after Senator Feinstein’s goof, reminded the world that "there was no tactical agreement or understanding with the U.S. to launch drone attacks [from] inside Pakistan." Oh, how the Pakistani crowds were furious.

I bring up this particular incident not because I think it’s worth inflaming whatever the Pakistani population in the readership, but rather because it’s important to realize that Google Earth has become a liability. And as much as I enjoy the zoom that allows me to play “Where’s Waldo?” and look for Osama’s hideout along the Afghan-Pakistan border, I’d gladly give up my eye-in-the-sky detail if it saved the U.S. from the scrutiny of militants armed with iPhones.

Pakistan Frontline forces working with Americans

It's confirmed, U.S. military advisers, mostly Army Special Forces soldiers, are training Pakistani troops in their fight against al-Qaida and the Taliban, The New York Times reported Sunday.

The U.S. task force provides the Pakistanis with intelligence and advises them on combat tactics, but does not participate in combat itself (yea right), the Times reported, citing U.S. military officials.

On Sunday, the Times reported that the effort was likely larger and more ambitious than previously acknowledged, involving some 70 U.S. advisers, including combat medics, communications experts and other specialists (like commandos who call in drone strikes, hmmm).

A commando unit within the Frontier Corps has used information from the Central Intelligence Agency and other sources to kill or capture as many as 60 militants in recent months, the newspaper said. Additionally, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the chief of Pakistan's army, is visiting Washington this week as the White House and the Pentagon review U.S. strategy in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

For those of you avid readers, you might remember a few posts back when I theorized that the Pakistanis were actually working with the U.S. to coordinate the drone strikes as well as obtain help in quelling the growing number of Taliban and AL-Queda forces that are attempting to gain larger control of the country. Well, I got some flack from Abu Guerrilla, but it looks like I was right. Thanks guys for the faith in my analytical skillz...suckers.

The Balochis are coming to get you Iran

Since my last post discussed the hard-liners in Iran and their attempts at controlling the outcome of the coming election, I thought it would be a great follow up for some of you cyber-life junkies out there to hear a little story about rebellion in Irans back yard that may prove to be a distraction for the administration.

Check out this great article by Chris Zambelis on the increasing Balochi violence in Iran and Pakistan.

Just click here for the goods. Balochistan Now!

"Let the games begin" declares Ahmadinejad as Iranian authorities shut down Khatami websites.

Iranian authorities have shut down two Web sites promoting the presidential bid of Mohammed Khatami in a first sign that the powerful hard-liners might seek to thwart his challenge to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the June 12 election.

Khatami declared on Feb. 8 he would run again for president, setting the stage for a major political showdown in coming months between the popular reformist (who made dialogue with the West a centerpiece of his eight years as president and the country's ruling hard-liners.

His candidacy poses a serious threat amid popular discontent with Ahmadinejad over the sagging economy, and the action against the Web sites came as Khatami named leaders in charge of his election campaign.

The Web sites, set up last summer in anticipation of Khatami's candidacy, could not be accessed from inside Iran on Saturday, though they were viewable outside the country. In addition to the blocking of websites, it is rumored that Ahmadinejad is routinely bussing in supporters to rallies as he stages his campaign.

Looks like the dirty tricks have begun, way to live up to your reputation Ahmadinejad.