One of Obama's key strategy points for the Middle East is "peace with Syria." The idea is that giving Syria a seat at the "normal country" table will help break up the flirting between Iran-Syria. Further more, it would drive a wedge in between Iran and Hamas/Hezbollah--both that are armed largely through Syria. Syria, Syria, Syria. I can't say it enough.
So why the hysteria? The Israeli-Syrian negations were brokered through the good faith of Turkey. And they had made "significant breakthroughs"--until the recent war in Gaza sparked a virtually unprecedented war of words between Israel and Turkey.
So now it's Turkey, Turkey, Turkey. When the U.S. invaded Iraq, many of the poor, rural and practicing Muslim population expressed much rage over the killing of Iraqi Muslims. And they sure didn’t like those bases in Diyarbakir province either.
But now those Turks have a new thing to be pissed about.
According to al-Jazeera:
And if I learned anything from my studies at Turkish university in Istanbul, it is that those Turks will deny that whole Armenian thing till the end of days. Oops. I think Major General Avi Mizrahi really pissed them off.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
If Nusrallah said it was a "gift from God," then call me an atheist
Thats right--it is the one-year anniversary of the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh. (And today is the four-year anniversary of the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri.) What does this mean? Well, I'd keep an eye out for some kind of retaliation by Hezbollah. This is why I'm recommending Nicholas Blandford's piece in the CSM today. He reminds us that:
So yeah, Hezbollah needs to respond in order to reestablish its deterrence. But since it is a sub-state actor, among other things, how exactly remains a mystery.
PS-- Question to the readership: Do you think that a Likud led government will adopt preemption with Hezbollah?
So yeah, Hezbollah needs to respond in order to reestablish its deterrence. But since it is a sub-state actor, among other things, how exactly remains a mystery.
PS-- Question to the readership: Do you think that a Likud led government will adopt preemption with Hezbollah?
Bridge To Iran Documentary
A few posts ago in a blogosphere far, far away we posted a link to a new documentary highlighting Link TV's Bridge to Iran series that seeks to fill in the knowledge gap by giving Americans a unique glimpse into the lives of ordinary Iranians, through the power of documentary film.
In the series is a showcase of five documentaries by contemporary independent Iranian filmmakers living and working in Iran. Bridge to Iran shatters preconceived notions about a nation and culture that most Americans know little about and have never experienced firsthand.
Check out the preview and some clips from the documentary here Bridge To Iran.
In the series is a showcase of five documentaries by contemporary independent Iranian filmmakers living and working in Iran. Bridge to Iran shatters preconceived notions about a nation and culture that most Americans know little about and have never experienced firsthand.
Check out the preview and some clips from the documentary here Bridge To Iran.
Taliban taking over Pakistan, America comes to the rescue
On Saturday, the United States gave Pakistan some much needed help in their fight for survival against a growing Taliban insurgency. Reports from Islamabad indicate that dozens of followers of Pakistan's top Taliban commander were in a compound when a suspected U.S. missile attack hit Saturday, killing 27 militants in an al-Qaida stronghold near the Afghan border.
The strike appeared to be the deadliest yet by the American drone aircraft that prowl the frontier borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite repeated public warnings by Pakistan that the U.S. not violate Pakistan soverignty, it is clear that the U.S. is insistent on helping Pakistan fend off the growing numbers of Taliban in side Pakistan's borders.
In an interview unrelated to the attack, President Asif Ali Zardari said the Taliban had expanded their presence to a ''huge amount'' of Pakistan and were even eyeing a takeover of the state.
''We're fighting for the survival of Pakistan. We're not fighting for the survival of anybody else,'' Zardari said, according to a transcript of his remarks that CBS television said it would air Sunday. Many Pakistanis believe the country is fighting Islamist militants, who have enjoyed state support in the past, only at Washington's behest.
So, it appears the United States is lending some much needed support to Pakistan, in the form of unmanned drone attacks, which may be appreciated by Pakistan even if they say something completly different to their neighbors.
The strike appeared to be the deadliest yet by the American drone aircraft that prowl the frontier borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite repeated public warnings by Pakistan that the U.S. not violate Pakistan soverignty, it is clear that the U.S. is insistent on helping Pakistan fend off the growing numbers of Taliban in side Pakistan's borders.
In an interview unrelated to the attack, President Asif Ali Zardari said the Taliban had expanded their presence to a ''huge amount'' of Pakistan and were even eyeing a takeover of the state.
''We're fighting for the survival of Pakistan. We're not fighting for the survival of anybody else,'' Zardari said, according to a transcript of his remarks that CBS television said it would air Sunday. Many Pakistanis believe the country is fighting Islamist militants, who have enjoyed state support in the past, only at Washington's behest.
So, it appears the United States is lending some much needed support to Pakistan, in the form of unmanned drone attacks, which may be appreciated by Pakistan even if they say something completly different to their neighbors.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Who will bring home Gilad Shalit?
The name Gilad Shalit ring a bell? He is the captured Israeli solder that is being held in the Gaza Strip. In a recent post, I said that Kadima would be able to outright win if they were able to bring home Shalit on the eve of the election. No such deal was made. But now, according most news agencies, a deal that would bring Shalit home is only days away. Still, however, I'm skeptical.
According to the Ma'an News Agency, the negotiations regarding Shalit have not even started. Confused? Me too.
So what is really going on here? Normally I would interpret such mixed messages as back-ally negotiations, but this time, I'm not so sure. Bringing home Shalit is a highly emotional issue for Israelis; especially in a time when parties are trying to form a ruling coalition, politicians are wiling to tell their constituencies almost anything.
But for such a deal to be reached, Israel would have to release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are considered very influential to the resistance.
All I'm saying here is that whoever brings home Shalit is going to get a serious rewards in popular support. But on the other hand, if one of these prisoners is credited with just one suicide mission, then whoever made this deal will surely pay the price.
Tough time for Israeli politicals’, but I have a feeling that someone is going to roll the dice on this one. The only question is, who?
According to the Ma'an News Agency, the negotiations regarding Shalit have not even started. Confused? Me too.
So what is really going on here? Normally I would interpret such mixed messages as back-ally negotiations, but this time, I'm not so sure. Bringing home Shalit is a highly emotional issue for Israelis; especially in a time when parties are trying to form a ruling coalition, politicians are wiling to tell their constituencies almost anything.
But for such a deal to be reached, Israel would have to release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are considered very influential to the resistance.
All I'm saying here is that whoever brings home Shalit is going to get a serious rewards in popular support. But on the other hand, if one of these prisoners is credited with just one suicide mission, then whoever made this deal will surely pay the price.
Tough time for Israeli politicals’, but I have a feeling that someone is going to roll the dice on this one. The only question is, who?
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Taliban jealous of Mumbai attacks, pull one of their own...
Yesterday the Taliban, obviously distraught about the success of the Mumbai attackers, attempted their own India style barrage. Developing reports detail that at least nine people have been killed so far in a Taliban attack on two government buildings in the Afghan capital, Kabul.
Witnesses say at least five men armed with assault rifles and grenades attacked the Justice Ministry building, triggering a two-hour gunbattle. Two of the attackers and at least three ministry employees were killed.
Police also say a suicide bomber attacked another building belonging to the ministry in northern Kabul, killing at least three people.
So, the reports confirm that the Taliban is still insistent on planning and executing attacks on unarmed targets as well as government officials, a trend they are habitualizing themselves too. Many bloggers have been tossing around their analysis of how this positions the Taliban in strength stature. Many, such as Abu Muqawama, believe these attacks show that the Taliban is not getting stronger, just adjusting their tactics. The new director of national intelligence told congress yesterday that the Taliban is getting stronger and the Karzai government is getting weaker.
So, who do you believe? What type of attack do you classify this as? Are the Taliban partaking in tactics of unconventional warfare or is this a simple case of terrorism? Does this attack make them seem weaker or stronger? Growing or shrinking? Not sure, well just stay posted to our blogs and you will see the light...from a blast in Kabul if your not careful.
Witnesses say at least five men armed with assault rifles and grenades attacked the Justice Ministry building, triggering a two-hour gunbattle. Two of the attackers and at least three ministry employees were killed.
Police also say a suicide bomber attacked another building belonging to the ministry in northern Kabul, killing at least three people.
So, the reports confirm that the Taliban is still insistent on planning and executing attacks on unarmed targets as well as government officials, a trend they are habitualizing themselves too. Many bloggers have been tossing around their analysis of how this positions the Taliban in strength stature. Many, such as Abu Muqawama, believe these attacks show that the Taliban is not getting stronger, just adjusting their tactics. The new director of national intelligence told congress yesterday that the Taliban is getting stronger and the Karzai government is getting weaker.
So, who do you believe? What type of attack do you classify this as? Are the Taliban partaking in tactics of unconventional warfare or is this a simple case of terrorism? Does this attack make them seem weaker or stronger? Growing or shrinking? Not sure, well just stay posted to our blogs and you will see the light...from a blast in Kabul if your not careful.
"America, think again about Iran. "
I'm glad that Roger Cohen traded his cushy New York office for the smoggy streets of Tehran. In his most recent column, he talks about the "other Iran." He describes it as a place were capitalism and modernity prove far more appetizing than medieval Islamic government. I'll let you read it yourself, but keep in mind that the best indication of change is when really hotshot journalist start unleashing a flurry of articles about it.
30 years of ice, is it breaking?
30 years of ice, is it breaking?
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
How the Isreali rolls
A conventional chap might say something like "Tel Aviv is more liberal that Sderot." And yes, it is mostly true. But what if that same guy said that "the settlements on the West Bank have a stronger Green Leaf Party following that in Tel Aviv." Would you believe that drunk?
In an unexpected email, Abu Danger--the spiritual leader of the Casbah--has sent me a smokin' hot graphics thing that Haaretz put together from the recent Israeli election. Click here to play with it.
In other news, it appears that the dude from the J Post was right: Israeli President, Shimon Peres, will likely turn to Likud to form a coalition government. With who? Yisrael Beiteinu and that crazy Moldovan bigot, Avigdor Lieberman.
(Ok, that was a little partisan.)
Nevertheless, my dear Livni presses on... But if she couldn't have put together a coalition before the election, were she had more seats in her favor, how could she now?
Israeli politics: not good for your heart, but got to love em'.
In an unexpected email, Abu Danger--the spiritual leader of the Casbah--has sent me a smokin' hot graphics thing that Haaretz put together from the recent Israeli election. Click here to play with it.
In other news, it appears that the dude from the J Post was right: Israeli President, Shimon Peres, will likely turn to Likud to form a coalition government. With who? Yisrael Beiteinu and that crazy Moldovan bigot, Avigdor Lieberman.
(Ok, that was a little partisan.)
Nevertheless, my dear Livni presses on... But if she couldn't have put together a coalition before the election, were she had more seats in her favor, how could she now?
Israeli politics: not good for your heart, but got to love em'.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
How to properly torture a collaborator, By Hamas
As the readership may remember, I predicted a few weeks ago that Hamas would go after Fatah and Co. when the dust finally started to settle on the Gaza Strip. And not to toot my own horn, but I have seen this reported by various news agencies.
Amnesty International led the charge by reporting that Hamas has been seriously cracking down on other political factions this week. So Hamas says, these people are Israeli collaborators and Fatah loyalists who are trying for a golpe de estado (overthrow of state in Spanish). Ironic, because it was Hamas who overthrew the Fatah controlled Palestinian Authority in Gaza just two years ago.
So in total, look for Hamas to continue to root out Fatah supporters who likely provided the Israeli Air Force with intelligence during their campaign in Gaza. Hamas will likely continue to be brutal as to continue to deter rivaling factions. And remember that post about Hamas stealing UN aid so it could distribute it? Yeah, look for some more of that too. Who ever can be seen as the rebuilder will get the street credibility.
But the key question: Are the people of Gaza really going to continue to tolerate this a de-facto Hamas government that tortures fellow Palestinians? To the comments section!
Amnesty International led the charge by reporting that Hamas has been seriously cracking down on other political factions this week. So Hamas says, these people are Israeli collaborators and Fatah loyalists who are trying for a golpe de estado (overthrow of state in Spanish). Ironic, because it was Hamas who overthrew the Fatah controlled Palestinian Authority in Gaza just two years ago.
So in total, look for Hamas to continue to root out Fatah supporters who likely provided the Israeli Air Force with intelligence during their campaign in Gaza. Hamas will likely continue to be brutal as to continue to deter rivaling factions. And remember that post about Hamas stealing UN aid so it could distribute it? Yeah, look for some more of that too. Who ever can be seen as the rebuilder will get the street credibility.
But the key question: Are the people of Gaza really going to continue to tolerate this a de-facto Hamas government that tortures fellow Palestinians? To the comments section!
Best news out of Israel all year...
With all the coverage of the Gaza war, and now the results of the Israeli election swarming the headlines, finally we have some great news coming out of Israel. What is it you say, well the winner is...Bar Refaeli. By far the best thing to come out of Israel all year.
And the winner is.....
As the results from the Israeli election are coming in, there are a few things that I want to focus on.
Haaretz exit polls show that:
*Kadima will take 29-30 seats in the Knesset and technically won the election.
*Likud came in with 27-28
*Yisrael Beiteinu 14-15
*Labor 13
See any problems?
A normal paring to form a coalition government would go something like Kadima/Labor and Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. But because Yisrael Beiteinu beat Labor by a similar margin of Kadima beating Likud, well, it's really anyone’s' game.
Will Yisrael Beiteinu work with Kadima and form a government? Did Labor get enough to pair them with Kadima? Or, perhaps Israeli President, Shimon Peres, will turn to Likud to form a coalition--even though they lost the election. (And sorry to cite a JPost article.)
Haaretz exit polls show that:
*Kadima will take 29-30 seats in the Knesset and technically won the election.
*Likud came in with 27-28
*Yisrael Beiteinu 14-15
*Labor 13
See any problems?
A normal paring to form a coalition government would go something like Kadima/Labor and Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. But because Yisrael Beiteinu beat Labor by a similar margin of Kadima beating Likud, well, it's really anyone’s' game.
Will Yisrael Beiteinu work with Kadima and form a government? Did Labor get enough to pair them with Kadima? Or, perhaps Israeli President, Shimon Peres, will turn to Likud to form a coalition--even though they lost the election. (And sorry to cite a JPost article.)
Monday, February 9, 2009
Armenian Genocide still not a genocide, but for how long?
Perhaps you followed some of the campaign platforms that were promoted during President Obama's quest for the White House, or maybe you just listened to what the pundits told you about this unprecendented candidate on your local news station. Either way, what you may or may not have heard from Mr. Obama during the campaing was a slick manuever at securing the majority of Armenian diaspora and human rights activists votes all in one fell swoop.
During his election campaign, Obama pledged to recognize the World War I-era killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as an act of genocide. Which is already considered by many, not including the Turkish government, to be the first genocide of the 20th century. If Mr. Obama keeps his promise, Turkey and the United States may be heading towards a crisis early on in the Obama presidency, and ErdoÄŸan (Prime Minister of Turkey) is expected to voice his concerns over this matter to Madeleine Albright at the G20 summit, analysts said.
Turkish news media has reported that in relation to the Armenian genocide, Turkish diplomats think the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan may not be enough to stop the Armenian diaspora’s efforts in the United States to have the 1915 incident officially recognized as genocide.
Both Obama and Biden had promised their voters of Armenian origin to work for such a recognition. Yet Turkish diplomats were quoted as stating, "There could be attempts for recognition early next year," the official said, adding, "But we have already started to work against this possibility. In our early contact with Obama and Biden’s advisers, we were clear about the sensitivity of the issue."
So, with Turkey's PM suggesting to Albright that Turkey offer its services to the U.S. to mediate talks with Iran, coupled with the platform promises of the Obama Biden campaign, we may or may not see the United States actually recognize the Armenian genocide as the Armenian genocide.
If I were a betting man, I would put my money on the events of 1915 as finally achieving the highly coveted status of official genocide. But who knows, Obama may have been blowing around smoke...from the Turkish hookah he took a hit from.
During his election campaign, Obama pledged to recognize the World War I-era killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as an act of genocide. Which is already considered by many, not including the Turkish government, to be the first genocide of the 20th century. If Mr. Obama keeps his promise, Turkey and the United States may be heading towards a crisis early on in the Obama presidency, and ErdoÄŸan (Prime Minister of Turkey) is expected to voice his concerns over this matter to Madeleine Albright at the G20 summit, analysts said.
Turkish news media has reported that in relation to the Armenian genocide, Turkish diplomats think the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan may not be enough to stop the Armenian diaspora’s efforts in the United States to have the 1915 incident officially recognized as genocide.
Both Obama and Biden had promised their voters of Armenian origin to work for such a recognition. Yet Turkish diplomats were quoted as stating, "There could be attempts for recognition early next year," the official said, adding, "But we have already started to work against this possibility. In our early contact with Obama and Biden’s advisers, we were clear about the sensitivity of the issue."
So, with Turkey's PM suggesting to Albright that Turkey offer its services to the U.S. to mediate talks with Iran, coupled with the platform promises of the Obama Biden campaign, we may or may not see the United States actually recognize the Armenian genocide as the Armenian genocide.
If I were a betting man, I would put my money on the events of 1915 as finally achieving the highly coveted status of official genocide. But who knows, Obama may have been blowing around smoke...from the Turkish hookah he took a hit from.
The Taliban: now armed with iphones
I just couldn't stop laughing at this picture of the ex-Taliban ambassador to Pakistan meticulously dicking around on his iphone.
Who said Islamism isn't compatible with modernity?
Who said Islamism isn't compatible with modernity?
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Ponder-time with sage Rooster
Ok; Ok, Ok. THE ROOSTER WAS RIGHT about two things this week and it's time to share.
Rooster said that because I went surfing in San Diego after the big rain I would get sick. Omg, it was horrible. It was as if the rapture was upon us...
And for the second, the Rooster said that former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami would run in the upcoming presidential election. The popular reformist leader is thought to be the only candidate who can defeat Ahmadinejad. And while Khatami favors better relations with the West, it is my prediction that he will have quite the battle ahead of him.
Rooster said that because I went surfing in San Diego after the big rain I would get sick. Omg, it was horrible. It was as if the rapture was upon us...
And for the second, the Rooster said that former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami would run in the upcoming presidential election. The popular reformist leader is thought to be the only candidate who can defeat Ahmadinejad. And while Khatami favors better relations with the West, it is my prediction that he will have quite the battle ahead of him.
The post-modern glue of "new Persia"
Before it was interesting, but now it's really getting good. Just this week the Egyptian security service intercepted a Hamas official who was carrying millions of dollars of Iranian cash. The money was going... Want to guess?
Obviously Hamas couldn’t hold the Israeli Defense Force in the most recent flare-up of violence. So, they wanted to inflict as much damage as possible, while being in charge of the rebuilding effort. It’s one of those "how to win by losing" kind of things.
That is why I’m not surprised that Hamas recently hijacked UN aid supplies intended for the people of Gaza. It is essential for Hamas to retain this kind of grass-roots support.
But back to the Iranian cash, it truly is evidence that the post-modern glue of "new Persia" is no myth. Remember Hezbollah's rebuilding effort after the 2006 war? Jihad al-Bina is the name of Hezbollah's construction company, and it's supported by Iranian cash. Putting in the extra effort to rebuild these war-torn communities definitely gets its own chapter in the guerrilla playbook. It's one of the fundamental reasons why the Hezbollahs and Hamases of the world stay in power.
And according to the pro-Cedar revolution newspaper, Now Lebanon, Hamas has around $40 million to spend rebuilding the Gaza Strip.
Obviously Hamas couldn’t hold the Israeli Defense Force in the most recent flare-up of violence. So, they wanted to inflict as much damage as possible, while being in charge of the rebuilding effort. It’s one of those "how to win by losing" kind of things.
That is why I’m not surprised that Hamas recently hijacked UN aid supplies intended for the people of Gaza. It is essential for Hamas to retain this kind of grass-roots support.
But back to the Iranian cash, it truly is evidence that the post-modern glue of "new Persia" is no myth. Remember Hezbollah's rebuilding effort after the 2006 war? Jihad al-Bina is the name of Hezbollah's construction company, and it's supported by Iranian cash. Putting in the extra effort to rebuild these war-torn communities definitely gets its own chapter in the guerrilla playbook. It's one of the fundamental reasons why the Hezbollahs and Hamases of the world stay in power.
And according to the pro-Cedar revolution newspaper, Now Lebanon, Hamas has around $40 million to spend rebuilding the Gaza Strip.
Dear Bashar, can the Casbah be an exception?
So I was browsing the NOW Lebanon news agency website for my last post and I stumbled across something interesting. It was a list of banned websites by the Public Telecommunications Company in Syria. While I understand why something like "sex.com" would be considered harram, I'm kinda' having a hard time with the fact that all the "blogspot" links are blacklisted. There goes my goal of trying to get a hit from every Middle Eastern country.
Thanks for nothing Bashar al-Assad!
Thanks for nothing Bashar al-Assad!
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