So are you a Zionist pig or Arab terrorist?

Your hanging out with your friends this past week: watchin' the game, eating some food, or even meeting up for a casual drink; the subject of Gaza comes up. One of your buddies chimes, " why are ‘they’ launching rockets at Israel? Israel just wants peace. You cannot make peace with terrorists." So the argument goes.

Assuming that you’re an American reading this (just pretend for a moment if your not) the chances are that your so-called buddies have known more Jews than Palestinians. Thus, it is than likely that your buddies have a more personal connection with at least the concept of Israel. At a very basic level they understand Zionism and learned about the German Holocaust in what little attention they paid in school. From sympathy alone, one would say something like, "jezz... isn't it time we all just give the Jews a break?"

This is something like how the past three weeks have been for me, living in San Diego.

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When I remember back to my time on the on the West Bank two summers ago, many Palestinians were horrified by the American ignorance to the peril in Palestine. “What do they all think,” a young Palestinian said, trying to comprehend the U.S’s unconditional support of Israel, “that all Palestinians are terrorists?” My words were too baffled to respond.

Even in liberal California, it amazes me how people can reduce this conflict into “sides.” You’re either pro-Israel or pro-Palestine. Which one are you they demand!?! I briskly respond by muttering something about being “pro-solution;” and I am suddenly branded a pinko-peacenik?

So lets all just take a breath while I clarify: I reject the notion that you either need to wear the Hamas Charter on your sleeve, or have a shrine in dedication to Arial Sharon above your fireplace.

So how about the next time I’m out with my buddies, when your out with your buddies, lets agree to take a step back and embrace the realist school on international relations on this one. That is: it is in the best interest of Israel, so-called Palestine and the U.S to find some sort of resolve to the decades of horror and promotion of radicals/sides. Better? Perhaps a bit too much for the bar?

To paraphrase, I like how American Zionist, former IDF solder turned columnist at The Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg, said in his book “Prisoners:” giving the Palestinians the West Bank and Gaza in exchange for peace sounds like a bargain to me.

I mean just think about it. Finding a solution would bolster the credibility of the Arab regimes (that are not allied with Iran) and would work to weaken the all-or-nothing vendetta's that is to easily sold in the ghettos of Gaza. Solving this inhumane fiasco would help insure regional stability while working to reduce the brash anti-Americanism that has come to dominate the region.

And while this argument/plan “seems like a deal to me,” there are still people who lobby against it. As I said: I am too baffled to answer.

Did I forget to say that Israel has a history of ignoring UN resolutions?

That's right. Israel said on Friday that it would continue to target Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, despite the UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease fire.

As Israeli war planes and ground troops continue to fight in Gaza, soon to be outed Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office called the U.N. resolution "not practical" and said the military "will continue acting to protect Israeli citizens and will carry out the missions it was given."

And what can anyone do? Everyone knew that the Security Council resolution that passed had no teeth, especially since the U.S. abstained from voting.

This is a good example of how the U.S. is really the only power with the necessary leverage to change Israeli polices towards the calamity in Gaza.

Lather, Scrub, Wash and Lather Again

So you've heard. The UN passed a cease fire resolution for the crisis in Gaza.

But I wouldn't call this a flat out loss for the Arab states. After all, they got this to be a "cease fire" rather than non-binding "presidential statement." But please, everyone with a necktie keeps talking about a "durable peace." The problem is that both Israel and Hamas wanted a bigger piece! Stop the rockets for more aid trucks? Didn't happen.

As for the resolution, it calls for the expected exit of Israel from Gaza, immediate halt to arms smuggling via tunnels and a general condemnation of violence and civilian targeting.

What the resolution did not do is mention Israel or Hamas as being responsible for any of these despicable acts that have taken place over the last two weeks. And while the resolution calls for border crossings to be reopened, there is no timetable.

All and all, it's good that there is a cease fire. People were dieing. But what steps have seriously been taken to cement this so-called durable peace? I see few with the teeth to make a difference.

So it's as I said: Lather, scrub, wash and lather again. Lets just hope that Obama (the only cat who in my opinion has the power to negotiate a true and durable peace) will get a a crack at the Levant before the place explodes again.
Sweet dreams.

Oh don’t worry, it's just the PFLP-GC

You’ve probably heard by now that some band of diehards in southern Lebanon launched a few Katyushas into Israel yesterday. While no more than 3 rockets were fired, this act of boldness officially breaks the rocket silence along the Blue Line (UN name for the border between Israel and Lebanon). Last time there were rockets fired from Lebanon it was June 2007!

But hold your horses; Just because “Katyushas” were used--and they came from the Hezbollah controlled south--doesn’t mean that Ayatollahs from Iran have blessed them with their turbans. In the 2006 War in Lebanon (between Hezbollah and Israel) Hezbollah launched over 4,000 Katyushas into Israel. That’s more than 240 rockets a day!

So thank God, Elohim and even Allah for the Internet. People, such as myself, read this Harretz breaking news story about Hezbollah being involved with yesterday's events with skepticism—nor Hezbollah or Iran has an interest in firing just 3 rockets, not now. Hezbollah is part of the Iranian terrorist apparatus; it does not function like a conventional military, and nor does it seek to.

What we should do is keep in mind is that there are over 400,000 Palestinians living in Lebanon; many of whom are really pissed about the Israeli Army’s apparent disregard for Palestinian life in Gaza.

So if it wasn’t the Iran/Hezbollah punch and Hamas said they didn’t do it... then who? (pause for impact)

Al-Manar, the Hezbollah new outlet, quoted high-ranking Hezbollah official saying that it was a Palestinian group--that shall remain unnamed. So no luck their.

But I think it's clear that Hezbollah wouldn’t mess around with just 3 rockets. Palestinian groups have done this sort of stuff before. And sparking a little action along the Blue Line is just enough to raise the stakes on Israel in the seemly endless game of psychological warfare.

So without further delay, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine Gerneral Command (PFLP-GC) neither confirmed or denied their action in the matter. And why shouldn't they? The PFLP-GC, a splinter group of the PFLP, has lost much credibility among Palestinian voters. So yeah, Leila Khalid (Google for picture) lifted a few eyebrows and the PFLP hijacked a few airplanes back in the day, what have you done for me lately…

If I’ve learned anything from following the Middle East it’s that the party of the weak never beats the strong by their own rules. Hence, my guess is that the PFLP-GC launched the rockets.

And so we will wake for another day…

Kickin' the Persian Cat

I'm not quite sure where I read it, but someone referred the current Israeli bombardment of Gaza as: "rearranging rubble." So yes, Gaza is in ruins, but how much does it effect Hamas and its hold on this heavly populated beachfront? If you read my last blog (one below this one) I argue that because of Hamas's unconventional roots, the bombing of its "official buildings" isn't as damaging to its overall strenth as one might think.

So, all these big ideas led to an interesting article I came across by Robert Kaplan, published in this months Atlantic. I found the following to be most interesting:

"To start with, Hamas does not have to win this war. It can lose and still win. As long as no other political group can replace it in power, even as some of its diehards can continue to lob missiles, however ineffectually, into Israel, it achieves a moral victory of sorts. Moreover, if Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah movement tries to replace Hamas in power, Fatah will forever be tagged with the label of Israeli stooge, and in the eyes of Palestinians will have little moral legitimacy. Israel’s dilemma is that it is not fighting a state but an ideology, the postmodern glue that holds together Greater Iran."

I agree that Fatah is out of this one. But what isn't being said is that Israel needs Hamas--or at least a Palestinian Authority that includes it. Otherwise, Gaza might as well be renamed Somalia, or any other place that is composed of feuding militias. Under such a scenario rocket fire will likely increase and Israel will be forced to reoccupy the Gaza Strip. And that is in no ones interest.

In addition to this point, it is interesting to recall how the Achamenid Empire of ancient Persia had substantial influence over the territory of Gaza. And now, as Kaplan connects, Iran reasserting its influence in the coastal strip by providing Hamas--unlike the Sunni Arab states--with both moral and strategic support.

This relationship gives an eye-opening look at Iran's competency not only to mediate and assist in regional Shia conflicts (like with Amal and Hezbollah in the 80's or Dawa, SIIC and Saddarist in modern Iraq) but in Sunni strongholds as well.

As Kaplan says, it is very important for both the U.S and Israel to find some kind of victory out of this conflict as to stem Iran's influence throughout the region. Dully important, is that Iran's influence be stemmed along the lines of Shia actors. Just the very notion of Iran working with sub-state Sunni's should send chills down the streets of Riyadh and Cairo.

Take a look:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200901u/gaza

Moving Beyond Conventionalism

On my way back to San Diego, I punched the AM dial on my car stereo to the unanticipated bellowing of Rush Limbaugh. Sure I’ve heard Rush before, but this time it was his oversimplified, crusading rant on the situation in Gaza that alarmed me. Can he really mean it?

As Rush said, we (both the U.S and Israel) need to defeat Hamas and its Iranian sponsored reign of the Gaza Strip. Anything else, he said, should be considered appeasement. The only problem is that he, like so many Likidist supporters of Israeli policy, seem to believe that Israel can crush Hamas in the same way it crushed its neighboring Arab states in the War of 67'.

Perhaps the biggest problem with this logic is that Hamas is in essence a band of Islamic guerrillas who have only recently got into the business of government. And now, with virtually all trances of a Hamas-run government in Gaza destroyed, Hamas has already reverted to its roots in unconventional warfare.

While people like Rush (and many other Likud-o-crats) see this as a clear victory, the real challenge will be to confront Hamas as it hides amidst the crowded streets in Gaza. And looking back to Israels unconvincing performance in the 2006 Hezbollah conflict, one of the most sour lessons learned was that a small, yet highly motivated and unconventional band of militants can be exceedingly hard to hit.

When the Israeli Air Force pounded Southern Lebanon in the first days of the offensive, Israeli Generals were convinced that their overwhelming air power would easily pave the way for Israeli troops to roll all the way up to nightclubs of Beirut. But during these air raids, many of Hezbollah fighters--who were not busy firing katyusha rockets into Israel--fell back into what cynics call “normal” Lebanese society.

With mentoring from Iran, Hezbollah knew that they could not damage Israeli warplanes. So they waited. And when Israeli troops finally moved into Lebanon they were able to show off their Quds Force training—an elite paramilitary unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard—and hold Israel to an eventual UN cease-fire. Hezbollah not only survived but has currently tripled its rocket supply and has become a buzzword on the Arab street.

This can be interpreted in a number of ways. But for the sake of the current Israeli campaign in Gaza, and for Rush, we must appreciate that Israel now lives in an age of guerrilla resistance. Perhaps one reason that Hezbollah has been so quiet over the past month is that it knows that their option to wage a two-front war with Israel would still be as likely to collapse from the overwhelming firepower of the Israel Air Force. Hezbollah, like Hamas, is not your everyday army.

Rather, these Iranian protégés are non-conventional guerrilla organizations that have strong grass-roots support in the downtrodden communities in which they operate. So lets exhale and take a moment to be clear: Hamas and Hezbollah are at best a lethal nuisance to Israel and have only been effective when Israeli troops invade and occupy their land.

When people like Rush say that we need to “wipe Hamas out,” they are most certainly thinking in the pre-67, conventional terms of the past. Israel has made a risky move by sending its solders into Gaza. In fact, some Hamas leaders have recently expressed their glee when Israel moved in its troops. Perhaps now they can take a few hostages and enjoy a revenge that is more than launching brash homemade projectiles and defacing popular posters.

It will be difficult for Israel, if not impossible, to stop Hamas and company from firing rockets onto nearby towns, that is clear. But what is more interesting to me is if the Israeli leadership really understands—as it clearly didn’t in the 2006 Lebanon War—that trying to “win” or “destroy” these guerrilla groups, who have both international and grass-roots support, is a much harder task than suggested.

Four articles on Gaza...

Robert Fisk has done it again by injecting a healthy dose of humanity and history into the often dry/technical analysis of the current situation in Gaza. It's like a "who are these people anyways" type of piece. He is the only journalist I know who has brought up the curious fact that approximately 80% of today's Gazan are not from Gaza City. Many families, for example, lived in Ashkelon. After Isreal's War of Independence, many Palestinians where crammed into the tighter quarters of what is today known as the Gaza Strip. And of course the irony is that this same city that many of these Palestinians were once from is now populated by Israeli's and taking daily Qassam, Grad and at times, even katyusha rockets. Although Fisk's piece was published in the Guardian, I think it's more settling to read it in Arab News. Enjoy.

http://arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=117824&d=5&m=1&y=2009


Mitchell Prothero takes a hard look at the IDF and Hamas and co. vis-a-vis their last two years of training for the current ground offensive in Gaza. Worth a read for sure.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/03/islamic-jihad-israel-gaza


Rory McCarthy is reporting from Jerusalem for the Guardian. As a fellow blogger from Abu Muqawama has so eloquently put: "its [The Guardian] coverage of the ongoing conflict in Gaza has been about as good as any English-language non-Israeli media outlet." If you want to know the details, I.E who died and where, then this is your piece.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/05/israel-palestine-gaza-attacks


Amos Harel,who wrote this military analysis for Haaretz, hits a key strategic point: assassination. This is a thought-provoking piece that leads you to to ponder how much would change if the Hamas leader in Gaza, Sheikh Ismail Haniyeh, was targeted.

He made another good point:
"Unlike the Second Lebanon War, the ground war in the Gaza Strip will be waged in densely populated urban areas. The civilian population in Lebanon fled during the fighting. In the Gaza Strip, however, there is nowhere to run but the beach and the Egyptian border, and many civilian casualties can be expected."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1052051.html


It's hard to predict where this military incursion is going. But one things for sure: the Palestinian militias will get a shot at the IDF (by entering The Strip on foot) besides firing crude rockets and defacing posters.