First off, the day's of the Hezbollah 1985 letter stating "we are only about resistance and will never point our arms at fellow Lebanese" are over. Remember what happened last May? The pro-Cedar government in Beirut, later deemed March 14, decided to crack down on the Hezbollah telecommunications company. Then, without warning, Hezbollah took over West Beirut! Click here to read what I had to say about. (And thank you Santa Barbara Independent for publishing my rant.)
It's now clear that Hezzy has broken this element of trust among the Lebanese; what about the rest of the Middle East? Remember Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army? Yup, members of the Mahdi Army trained in the Lebanese Beeka valley. AND, now with this whole scandal in Egypt a month ago, the Arabian Sheikh's are starting to talk...
So what's the deal? Either Hezbollah is about defending the Shia Lebanese and fighting Israel IN LEBANON, or they are about getting into the business of regional arms trafficking and training. If the latter, this would technically brand Hezbollah as a "regional group" and thus, more justifiable for Israel--and perhaps established Arab states like Egypt--to "return the favor" via force.
(This is a picture of a blown bridge in northern Lebanon right after the 2006 War. But wait, isn't Hezbollah mostly in the south? "Oh my child, let me tell you about a little something called 'collective punishment' vis-a-vis the civilian population..." Get the point?)And now for something completely different: Did anyone read the Haaretz article: "Iran's missiles are not an existential threat"? Keep in mind, those Persian Shahab's are really just SCUD's with new paint. --Hasta.
2 comments:
Supplying assistance to the Palestinians is hardly something new for Hizbullah. Certainly, they do see Hamas as a much more important ally, especially in wake of its 2007 take-over of Gaza.
However, in 2002 they were involved in the seaborne effort to smuggle some 50 tons of weapons to Fateh (not Hamas) on board the Karine-A. This included some 345(107mm and 122mm) rockets, 39 (60, 81, and 120mm) mortars and 1545 rounds of mortar ammunition, among other goodies.
Hizbullah also reportedly provided financing to some semi-independent al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade cells in the West Bank following the eruption of the second intifada.
Interestingly, what we haven't seen is much evidence of MANPADs and ATGMs being supplied, despite their availability to Hizbullah (and Iran), and despite the greater ease of smuggling these compared with, say, Chinese-made Grads. The IDF reports only a handful of possible (and no confirmed) uses of these weapons during Operation Cast Lead.
Why is this? It seems odd, given their potential military utility. There are several possible explanations:
1) Hamas has them, but didn't use them (keeping them in reserve for a rainy day, or fearing their use would be too escalatory).
2) Iran/Hizbuallah didn't supply them, fearing that they were too escalatory.
3) Hamas doesn't have the skill/training to absorb them.
4) Iran is worries about chain-of-custody issues, and the risk that they would be diverted by bedouin smugglers to other buyers, who could then use them for something really nasty.
Personally, I don't buy #1 and #2. #3 has some merit, and #4 seems pretty plausible too.
I would agree that #3 has the most merit, but I think #4 is not an issue anymore. In 2008, Hizbollah ordered 3000 of these weapons from Russia with Iranian backed financing, and this was no intelligence secret, so the chain of custody issue is mute.
Uskowi on Iran reported this last year with great detail.
As for the aquisition and use by Hamas in #1 & #2, I agree, they are unlikely. Hamas may have a few, but they would have used them if they could have. Additionally, the Palestinians are trying to get their hands on any and as much weaponry as they can, regardless of training applicability.
great comment!
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