War Profiteering off the next Lebanon war?

I just exchanged a few emails with freelance journalist Michael J. Totten. We both more or less agreed on the sames points:

1. We both don't have publishers for our books, though we are working to get them.

2. Whatever happens--be it self-publish or publisher--it is a categorical imperative to get our
books out before the next Levantine war.

(Hezbollah controlled south Beirut. These are mock-rockets pointed south at Israel. It is something of a public relations campaign, Hezbollah-style.)

3. We both have friends in Israel and Lebanon and as a human being we both do not want to see another round of conflict.

4. If there is another war, we hope it shall be the last.

(Hezbollah rally in south Beirut. According to Sayyed Hassan, this day was to "remember the mayrters of the 2006 War.")

5. It is ridiculous to think that a war that has not happened yet will happen. Nothing is inevitable. Though, it is naive to think there shall never be another war in this region, or that a "war to end all wars" exists as a concept.

(This is a blown bridge in the Beekaa Vally in Lebanon. Locals here say "blown by American bombs [via Israel] and rebuilt by American contractors.)

Now for my last question... The idea of a "next war" makes both Totten and I sick to our stomachs... but does it make us "war profiteers" to know that in all likelihood another round of war is coming this year and it will also help us sell books?

I think not. Just because we know it doesn't mean we are rooting for it. Though, I've heard of journalists being accused of this kind of thing before.

Armed resistance is a hell of a lot more romantic when you can escape an Israeli "collective punishment" campaign

Yes, this is anti-American: I skipped the Super Bowl to work on my book proposal. Truth is that I'm going with a few comrades to surf Baja, Mexico over Presidents day weekend and I want to take a hard copy to edit while I'm southward.

But while I was sneekin' around the Internet today, I came across a wonderful post by our friends over at Notes from Amedinah. I met this Cat in Beirut last summer... And boy can he blog.

For example, I've been busy and missed the new Pew poll on the Middle East:


What do I think?

Well, the idea armed resistance is a hell of a lot more romantic when you can escape an Israeli "collective punishment" campaign. This stat shows me that most Arabs/Turks don't like Israel; they like getting bombed by them even less. Too bad they don't have numbers on Syria. That is a country that likes Hezbollah bounds beyond the Assad regime.

What Middle Eastern books do you like?

Question:

What Middle Eastern books do you like?

I ask this because I am writing a book proposal and I am trying to thoroughly identify a sort of genre. This is a bit absurd, however, as no one has ever tried to surf around the Blue Line.

So far, I have:

Prisoners, by Jeffery Goldberg
The Places In Between, by Rory Stewart
Baghdad Without A Map, by Tony Horwitz
Black on Black, by Ana M. Briongos

I'm considering listing Michel Totten's new book but it isn't out yet.


Update: Anyone read Henry Hemming's Misadventures in the Middle East? Highly recommended.

The irony of writing a book

So I'm writing a query for my book: From Israel to Lebanon: A savage surf saga through the tribes of the Middle East.

And now for the definition of irony:

The best written page of this crazed Levantine jaunt won’t even make it into the book!

Yes, it is true... You send this 600-word "Hey, this is me" to a few publishers and hope one of them is inebriated enough to welcome on a manuscript.

Excuse this short post Casbahites, old Abu G is rollin' back into the grind.

Population centric counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

The biggest problem with the American-led population centric counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan is the regime of Hamid Karzi, itself. These corrupt Afghans in Kabul A) cannot keep security, B) are no less brutal than the Taliban and C) really have no incentive to change as they wouldn't mind the Americans and NATO to do all their work for them.

More to the point, I think Thomas Ricks post the other day on his blog, The Best Defense, got it right on. Ricks was attending a speech in Florida by Gen. MacFarland who spoke about the personalized nature of COIN. He says you have to get out in the population and engage the tribal structure etc. Why? Because nothing that happens in Kabul seems to effect the village-level Taliban insurgency.

Ricks writes that Gen. MacFarland gave him permission to quote the General's unpublished paper. Read these points through... I think they reflect not just the correct way forward, but why we continue to fail.

First, he argues that all counterinsurgency is local. That makes sense because it is a form of politics.

Second, the people are indeed the key to the solution. But, he adds, "It is not enough to protect the population, they must be given the means to protect themselves." (Interesting point for whoever revises the Army/Marine COIN manual to mull.) "Bottom line: We promised them the means to secure themselves in a way that did not disrupt their cultural order." That is, he explains, they didn't want police directed by Baghdad because they feared Iranian infiltration of Iraqi security forces.

Third, to engage in genuine COIN is to grab the tail of the dragon. You can't lead the local uprising, "All you can do is enable it." And you will operate not only on very incomplete knowledge, you often will know less than the other people in the room-like who and where the bad guys are.

And don't expect to rest on your laurels. One fix creates another problem. If you succeed, your problems are hardly over. "As the threat receded, old rivalries began to re-emerge."

Like a werewolf, when the moon gets too close

It was another one of those late night writing sessions that took me into the early hours of the morn. I had been at it all day; though most of my work was frustrating and unproductive. Writing a book is no task for a chump. After a 2AM call to a friend in the Netherlands, I decided to put on my sweatshirt, cut my losses and walk out and into the cold air the the epic night. Indeed, it was one of those nights.

From across the parking lot I saw the full bright moon shining onto my 91 white Ford Bronco--the "getaway car" of choice for football star and probable wife-killer, O.J. Simpson. It's a shame that this off-road beast of an American classic has been tainted with this blood; the Bronco is what foreigners point to when they cite American excess and consumption. Yet, there is always something about flyin' home, like a werewolf, in the wee hours of the AM that spells freedom. I keep the overdrive off on these nights, letting the beast wind out, 45, 50 and to a grand speed of 55.

And 55... An interesting number for owners of American cars built in the 90s. For that was the freeway speed limit during those times. (Now it is 65.) But it is not that it was 55, but rather "why" that makes this interesting.

I believe Jimmy Carter lowered the speed limit to save gas as a result of the Arab Oil Embargo, in direct response to American aid to Israel in the October War. But what the fuck? I got on the highway and punched the overdrive, feeling the power of a huge Detroit engine charging like Genghis Khan on an iron horse down the open lanes. It was now 2:10AM.

The story dose not stop here. No. No. For there is more than this meager red hash on my Bronco dashboard that reflects the speed limit of the past. The engine is geared spin at a 1,800RPMs @ 55MPH (normal). It spins at 2,100 @ 65MPH. Meaning? You could have guessed: The Bronco burns more gas when going at the modern speed limit than it should. Why? Because a few events in the Middle East--all of which happened before I was born.

This is why we blog the Middle East. Around every turn something happens that reminds us of how connected to this world we really are... So be careful my dear Casbahites... It will soon come after you too; for it speaks to the werewolf in all of us on these nights when the moon comes close.

Al-Farabi gets the Casbah word on the new U.S Ambassador in Syria

Al-Farabi writes from downtown Damascus:

AG, I've been trying to log on and post a short note but the connection I have is soooooo bad today and blogger just won't load.

Anyways, do you mind writing in to mention that I am hitting the streets the next few days to discuss the recent appointment of the US Ambassador to Syria--what the perception is for Syrians, what they expect to change or not change, etc.

I'll have a summary of the Syrian street's reaction this weekend or early next week. Cool? Sick story about the lake in Russia. Made me think of some friends I know that hit the lake in Cleveland during snowstorms.

Nice, Farabi. Can't wait to read what you come up with!